Ha Ha Ha, Uncertainty, That's a Good One

Evidently, it is a long-standing joke among economists that uncertainty is a known unknown in economic models. At least early psychologists and modern neuroscientists recognize its importance: "It is, in short, the reinstatement of the vague to its proper place in our mental life which I am so anxious to press on the attention."

That is somewhat reminiscent of my earlier-expressed view that uncertainty is sort of like the dark matter of the economic universe. (Or, I guess more accurately today, dark energy.) And that, I admit, should have prompted me to recall the famous Donald Rumsfeld "poetry" about "unknown unknowns."