Klosterman Comes Close to Getting It

Since my expository post on Uncertainty, you can see that I have come across a few things relevant to that general theme. One was the Taleb quotation. And now comes this from Chuck Klosterman, one of my favorite writers, in the September issue of Esquire (he is a columnist there). I don't think it's available online yet, so I'll post a few selections here:

"Baseball has--by far--the best scoring system in all of sport. It makes uninteresting contests exciting, because it a) doesn't have a concept of time and b) distributes runs in unorthodox increments. . . . Imagine a 3-0 game in the bottom of the ninth inning: The leading team is clearly in control. But if the leadoff hitter gets a bloop single, the pressure immediately reverts to the pitcher--now, if the next guy gets on base, the game has the potential to be reinvented with one swing. The fact that you can instantly score a variable number of runs (in a game in which scoring is rare) keeps baseball fascinating."

(Admittedly, Klosterman begins this sidebar by saying baseball is a "turgid game that no longer reflects society." Obviously, given the existential premise of this website, I think he's wrong.)

There are multiple levels we could explore here, but I want to initially focus on the one that jumped out at me: a direct link to Mandelbrot's concept of "trading time," a key part of his ideas around fractals in finance. Klosterman points out that in baseball, scoring often occurs in bunches: this not only perpetuates uncertainty but also distorts a "normal" sense of time.

I wonder if a worthwhile statistical analysis would be to chart the distribution of scoring in baseball? Does it occur in bunches? It might make sense given the way a run-scoring rally can build on itself, but I wonder if this might be tied to home run frequency.

Anyway, if run scoring in baseball did occur in bunches, I suppose this might be analogous to the economic phenomenon of innovations often appearing in waves or clusters.

If anyone out there knows if such a statistical analysis has been done, please let me know.